With the war set off by the U.S.-Israeli strike on Iran continuing to rage and have ripple effects around the world, multiple airline executives have warned that rising fuel costs will eventually trickle down to travelers.
At a panel discussion at the start of the month, United Airlines CEO Scott Kirby said the impact of jet fuel that hovers at $100 per barrel on consumers “will probably start quick,” adding that he now expects oil prices to affect the airline’s bottom line into at least the second quarter.
The latest airline executive to sound the alarm on crude oil and jet fuel prices is Robert Isom of American Airlines.
“A $400 million impact”: Robert Isom speaks of jet fuel price spikes
“Fuel prices have increased rapidly over the last few weeks,” Isom said at the JP Morgan Industrials Conference 2026. “It has only been seven weeks since we reported earnings. What we have seen since that time is about a $400 million USD impact in terms of our first-quarter expenses.”
Amid widespread uncertainty around the course the war will take in the coming weeks and months, and continued retaliatory strikes on multiple Middle Eastern countries from Iran, there is much speculation about just how much impact the war will have on airfare.
Related: Hedge fund sounds alarm about this airline’s stock amid Iran war
Asian airlines such as Cathay Pacific and Singapore Airlines have already increased ticket prices on certain routes by as much as 200%, and many others have warned that they will need to do the same if the current situation continues.
Delta Air Lines had previously estimated that an oil price increase of just one cent per gallon will increase its fuel costs by $40 million per year by the end of 2026. Isom is now also saying he expects fuel costs to affect the airline’s bottom line into the second quarter of 2026.
While some analysts are advising travelers to lock down tickets for any future travel now, others are saying this could also be a risky move, given the rush of others doing the same in a situation of panic.
What airlines are doing about rising jet fuel costs
Airlines often have trouble passing fuel cost increases on to passengers without affecting booking numbers, so most will try to raise margins in other ways before increasing prices.
European and Asian airlines have generally hedged oil to meet their needs into 2027 but U.S.-based carriers generally do not do this because securing futures contracts can also result in major losses if prices end up stabilizing earlier than anticipated.
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At the investors conference, Isom also said the airline’s large domestic network could prove to be American’s advantage compared to competitors facing similar issues, given the lower fuel needs for shorter routes.
“If this proves to be a long-term phenomenon, we know that appropriate steps will be taken to ensure we drive revenue performance to offset it,” Isom said.
Unfortunately, such promises may fail to reassure many as the situation in the Middle East continues to escalate.
Related: Iranian strike hits major airport, injuries reported