The Turkish lira rose slightly this week as traders waited for the upcoming CBRT interest rate decision, as the crisis in the Middle East continued. The USD/TRY exchange rate retreated to 44 from the year-to-date high of 44.10. Turkish Central Bank interest rate decision The Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT) will be
In last week’s edition, we wrote that the price of oil would now be calling the shots and thus determining the performance of global financial markets. The last few days have confirmed this thesis – and with more force than we ourselves would have expected. Since the publication of the last Thoughts, the price of
The XAU/USD chart indicates that gold has been moving within the $5,060–$5,200 range during the last few trading sessions. Bullish perspective: the lower boundary of the long-term ascending channel — in place since early 2026 — currently serves as the main support level. Bearish perspective: the market is facing pressure following comments from President Donald
The USD/JPY exchange rate pulled back slightly, moving from this week’s high of 158.85 to 157 as geopolitical tensions fell and after Japan published strong macro data. So, what next for the pair ahead of the upcoming US inflation report? Japan published strong GDP data The USD/JPY exchange rate pulled back as the US dollar
For a brief stretch earlier this year, the euro traded comfortably above $1.20. Investors were talking up Europe’s defence spending plans, big-ticket infrastructure projects and a more confident post-pandemic recovery. That optimism evaporated almost overnight. The war in the Middle East revived one of the euro’s oldest vulnerabilities: energy dependence. Crude oil surged toward $100
This preview of weekly data examines USOIL and XAUUSD, with economic data expected later this week as the primary market drivers of the near-term outlook. 9/03/2026 Highlights of the week: US inflation, UK GDP, US core PCE Wednesday US Inflation rate at 12:30 GMT, with the consensus pointing to an increase of around 0.1% to
Currency markets rarely send clear signals during geopolitical crises, but the latest dollar surge arrived at a moment when investors were already uneasy about inflation, interest rates and rising government debt. Then the Middle East conflict added another layer of uncertainty. For a few days, the dollar strengthened sharply, oil jumped, and markets rushed into
The USD/ZAR rebounded this week, reaching its highest level since December last year as the South African rand retreated amid the ongoing war in Iran. It was trading at 16.60 on Friday, up 6.45% from its lowest level this year. South African rand plunges amid war risks The South African rand and other emerging market
The US dollar retreated only modestly from its recent highs against various other major currencies despite February’s NFP released on 6 March coming in much lower than expected at negative 92,000. This article summarises the latest American job report and the revisions that came with it then looks briefly at the charts of EURUSD and
Gold didn’t creep higher in early 2026. It lunged. In late January, futures pushed through $5,500 an ounce before sellers finally stepped in. Silver, true to form, overshot even more dramatically, tagging levels above $120 in what felt like a momentum chase more than orderly price discovery. Within days, both metals gave back a meaningful